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Valley Public Radio Staff
Tue August 21, 2012
Report: State Unemployment Will Fall Below 10 Percent In Mid 2013
An economic forecast out today says California’s unemployment rate will drop to single digits this time next year – sooner than originally predicted. Right now, California’s jobless rate is 10.7%. It peaked at 12.5% in 2010. The rate’s been inching down ever since.
Economist Jeff Michael is with the Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific in Stockton. “We see [the] unemployment rate going into single digits in mid-2013 and in the past we’ve been saying the end of 2013.”
He attributes the improved forecast to better than expected job growth. California is now outperforming the rest of the country when it comes to job creation…with “health services” being one of the leading job sectors.
“It did really well in the recession compared to everything else. You know, everything else was declining. We don’t see any significant variation from that pattern going forward.”
He says overall job growth in the state will rise at a gradual pace, just under 2% (1.8%) for the next year-and-a-half with the unemployment rate falling below 9% in 2014 and below 8% the following year.