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New Field Poll Shows Prop 30 Just Short of 50 Percent

Nov 1, 2012

California Governor Jerry Brown speaks at an October rally in favor of his tax measure, Proposition 30.
Credit Andrew Nixon

The final Field Poll before Election Day on California’s two rival tax measures shows Governor Jerry Brown’s Proposition 30 leading by 10 points and education advocate Molly Munger’s Proposition 38 trailing by 15 points.

Prop 30 has lost support over the last several weeks and is now just shy of the 50 percent support it needs to pass. But Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo says it still has a “decent shot.”

“Voters clearly are shaking out and voting their self-interest. The good news for the governor is the camp that he’s in appears to have slightly more people," says DiCamillo.

In other words, more Californians, and more undecided voters hold positions that make them more likely to vote “yes," such as approving of the governor’s job performance and being concerned about potential state budget cuts if Prop 30 fails.

DiCamillo says each tax measure is drawing support away from the other – including nine percent who support Munger’s initiative but not the governor’s.